Way Too Early Round 1-3 in 2026

I'm at the part of the season where my mind is wandering a bit, and I want to have a little fun. The first NFBC drafts for 2026 should open sometime around mid-October, and degenerates (including myself and others) will surely be engaging in our first activity of the offseason. That gives us four months to close out 2025, take a moment to breathe and reflect, and immediately dive into our first early draft. However, I am compelled to speculate on what the first three rounds of the ADP will look like next season. There is still plenty of baseball to be played, and the likelihood that this changes is at least 99.9%. But I don't care because it's fun, so let's take a look!

League Type: 15-Team, 5x5 Roto

Round 1

1.1 Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, LAD

Don't be stupid. Ohtani is #1, although I strongly considered Elly, and some may take the shot if Shohei returns to the mound full-time

1.2 Elly De La Cruz, SS, CIN

Elly offers the most consistent stolen base output, and although there is a high probability he could hurt you in batting average, it's a risk worth taking.

1.3 Aaron Judge, OF, NYY

The reigning Triple Crown winner (not-so-bold prediction) still doesn't have enough steals to work himself into the discussion for 1.1, but if he plays 140 games, he's a near-lock for 50 homers.

1.4 Bobby Witt Jr., SS, KCR

Witt is a perennial 25-30 player with the capability to steal 40, possibly 50 bags, given his speed. I still have concerns about how consistent the power will be year-over-year, but he's hit over .275 for three straight seasons, and that's a solid foundation in all five categories.

1.5 Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, ATL

The biggest question over the final 80-ish games of 2025 is whether Ronald Acuna Jr. will run again. He has said he'll slow down, and he's only attempted one steal in his first 25 games since returning from the ACL tear. Additionally, his SprintSpeed has been slowly decreasing for the fourth consecutive season. Acuna stealing thirty bases versus stealing ten is the difference between him going 1.2 and 1.12, so I'll err on the side of caution and find a middle ground.

1.6 Juan Soto, OF, NYM

If OBP were a category in 5x5, Soto would be in consideration as the #1 overall pick. However, it's not, so we get an elite four-category player with a sprinkling of steals that's anything but consistent. His second year in Queens should be much better than year one, although when the dust settles in October, Soto will be flirting with .300 and pushing 30 homers.

1.7 Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, CHC

I fully buy the PCA breakout, and I'm here for it. Seventh overall may be too conservative, as someone will undoubtedly push him inside the Top 3 by the time March rolls around. At his current pace, Crow-Armstrong has a realistic shot at a 40-40 season in year two as a big leaguer.

1.8 Gunnar Henderson, SS, BAL

2025 will likely be remembered as an average season for Gunnar when all is said and done. His team context hurt him this season as opposed to the positive influence it had in 2024. It didn't help that he started a bit slowly after returning from the injury and that the Orioles are firmly out of contention even before July 1st.

1.9 Jose Ramirez, 3B, CLE

JRam will likely play in over 150 games for the fifth straight season in 2025 and is again pacing towards a 30-homer season with 40 steals, similar to his 2024 results. Team context continues to play a factor in JRam's counting stats. Still, unless there is a philosophical change in the FO, Ramirez will continue to be the offensive Ferrari parked under the trailer park carport.

1.10 Kyle Tucker, OF, FA

I'm still butt-hurt over the Astros' medical staff and their malpractice against King Tuck last season. Thankfully, he's been impressive in his walk year with the Cubs. Unless Tucker ends up in the worst hitting park in the Majors (SEA), his landing place in free agency doesn't matter much.

1.11 Corbin Carroll, OF, ARI

We think the shoulder injury is a thing of the past, and Carroll's power this season is significantly better than the 2023 version that hit 25 homers as a rookie. But, he's now stealing fewer bags because you can't steal second when the ball leaves the yard. Hopefully, we can find a happy medium where Carroll hits 35 and steals 45.

1.12 Fernando Tatis Jr., OF, SDP

Assuming health, Tatis is pretty much locked in for 25-25 and a batting average of around .270. His counting stats aren't great in a bad lineup, and that hurts his fantasy value in a big way. For that reason, I cannot justify placing Tatis inside the Top 10, and it's why so many people fade him year after year.

1.13 Tarik Skubal, SP, DET

Skubal-Skenes, Skenes-Skubal. Either way is fine with me, but I lean Skubal solely on team context. If the Pirates would a) win or b) give Skenes run support, I'd likely move him ahead. Instead, I'll take double-digit wins, a sub-3.00 ERA, a sub-1.00 WHIP, and 200+ strikeouts and be happy, especially as the first pitcher off the board.

1.14 Jackson Chourio, OF, MIL

2024 was scratching the surface of what Chourio is capable of. He's already on pace to surpass his homer and steal totals from his rookie season, and the 21-year-old is only going to get better with age. Could he get to 30-30 this season? Maybe. In 2026? I'd bet heavy on the over.

1.15 Paul Skenes, SP, PIT

There is a valid argument for Skenes as SP1 and, in the same breath, as a second-round pick. His team context is truly sub-optimal, but if anyone can overcome shitty run support and terrible ownership, it's the best pitcher in the game.

Round 2

2.1 Vlad Guerrero Jr., 1B, TOR

Since the contract/free agency situation has already been resolved, there's no concern about the new team/new hitting environment that we anticipated before 2025. Instead, Vladdy can focus on mashing, which is what he does best. His ground ball rate has dipped once again this season, but he has just nine homers at the time of writing. He should be fine, and 30 HR-90 R-100 RBI is easily attainable as he enters his age-27 season.

2.2 Francisco Lindor, SS, NYM

This is the point in the draft where things can get wonky. The standard Top 15 is off the board, and team build is the focus. Lindor offers a high floor of 30 homers and 30 steals, with a range of batting averages between .245 and .275. It feels 'safe' taking Frankie in this spot, but the upside play can be more enticing.

2.3 Wyatt Langford, OF, TEX

Langford is the first opportunity for the upside play. His power and speed are legit, but injuries have derailed him early on in his career. Assuming he can stay on the field, I see a clear path to 30-30 with the possibility of exceeding both. The risk factor is enough to push him down further, but the reward could force him into round 1 if someone gets aggressive.

2.4 Garrett Crochet, SP, BOS

With all due respect to Zack Wheeler, Garrett Crochet is now SP3, and it's not a matter of debate. Crochet has taken his game to a new level this season with the Red Sox, and concerns over workload should be quieted by the end of 2025. It's within the range of outcomes where Crochet is the perennial favorite to lead the league in strikeouts, which only solidifies his place as a top 3 pitcher in fantasy.

2.5 Julio Rodriguez, OF, SEA

I'm unsure what to make of Julio Rodriguez from year to year. In most seasons, he starts slow, and his ultimate outcome is wildly inconsistent and extremely frustrating. From a talent standpoint, he's a first-round pick, but like many others, I shy away from him unless I can acquire him at a truly outstanding price point. Pick five in the second round is not enough value for me to take the risk on Julio, but inevitably, someone always does and then regrets it.

2.6 Oneil Cruz, OF, PIT

Speaking of talent, Cruz has elite tools. He hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball and has 92nd percentile SprintSpeed, which has led to 25 steals already this season. Horrible contact skills are what keep Cruz outside of the Elly/Acuna tier, and I'm confident that it won't change. That said, he's just freakish enough to make a push for 50-50, and getting that value in the early part of round two is highly intriguing.

2.7 Trea Turner, SS, PHI

The batted-ball data continues to fade for the soon-to-be 32-year-old shortstop, but one thing hasn't faded: speed. Turner remains in the 99th percentile for SprintSpeed, and with a batting average consistently in the high .280s or better, his floor as a base stealer offers enough value to overcome what should be less than 20 homers in due time.

2.8 Jazz Chisholm Jr, 2B, NYY

I think Jazz could be elite in Yankee Stadium, but between his swing-and-miss and inevitable IL stints, the bust risk is just too significant for me in round two. Playing half his games in that park could yield a 40-40 season, but Jazz could just as easily hit .220.

2.9 Yordan Alvarez, OF, HOU

In addition to his chronic knee issues that have lingered for years, Alvarez has not played since May 3rd due to a mysterious hand injury that has not healed. Alvarez still hasn't started swinging a bat, and I'm beginning to wonder if Kyle Tucker's 2024 leg injury has reincarnated with Yordan's hand injury. When he's healthy, Yordan is a 40-homer, .300 average typed talent. But when you're only getting 120 games a season, I can't justify Alvarez anywhere higher than the late part of round two.

2.10 James Wood, OF, WSH

Wood is finally figuring out how to lift the ball and is breaking out as a result. After a 55.7% ground ball rate in 2024, Wood has lowered it by over 4%, improving his launch angle by three degrees and posting 20 homers in the same amount of at-bats as last season. When you bake in 15+ steals, Wood could end up as a bargain with the 10th pick in round 2.

2.11 Junior Caminero, 3B, TBR

I'm admittedly higher on Caminero than most, but this is a present star and future megastar. The 21-year-old has elite batted-ball data to pair with excellent contact skills. With a .264 BABIP right now, Caminero is batting .262 and has 18 homers. Assuming regression to the mean, it's reasonable to project Caminero in the same class as Rafael Devers (30+ HR, .270+ average), only he runs a bit more and currently plays in a bandbox in Tampa. Caminero makes the highest jump in ADP over 2025, where he was an early 6th-round pick.

2.12 Chris Sale, SP, ATL

Fresh off his first career Cy Young as a 35-year-old, Sale has been equally dominant this season. He turns 37 before Opening Day in 2026, but I find it hard to believe that after two consecutive of domination, drafters are going to let Sale fall much lower than SP4. There's a lot that can happen between now and then, but I like this spot for Sale and his suddenly reliable health and production.

2.13 Ketel Marte, 2B, ARI

This isn't too far off of where Ketel went in 2025, and it's evident to me that he's the #1 second baseman in all formats. The issue with Marte is that while his floor is much higher, the ultimate ceiling cannot reach what Jazz is capable of, particularly in terms of steals. Instead, Marte goes about his business every season, hitting around .280 with 25+ homers and above-average counting stats, remaining largely underappreciated in fantasy circles.

2.14 Freddie Freeman, 1B, LAD

At some point, Freeman is going to slow down and no longer be a viable early-round value, but so far, it hasn't happened. The 35-year-old is once again batting over .300 and is on pace for another 20-homer season. The issue right now is that Freeman's lingering ankle injury has kept him from running at all this season, so his typical 10-15 stolen base output is non-existent. Even still, Freeman is a Top 30 player and will be drafted as such.

2.15 Austin Riley, 3B, ATL

So long as he's healthy, you can pencil Riley in for 30 homers, a .270+ average, and around 200 combined runs and RBIs. His consistency is remarkable, and much like Marte, Riley doesn't get the love he deserves in fantasy circles. If there is one thing I worry about with Riley, it's that his strikeout rates creep up a bit more each season, and in 2025, he's approaching 30%.

3rd Round

3.1 Logan Gilbert, SP, SEA

If Gilbert finishes 2025 strong, you can make a case for him as SP4 just ahead of Sale. His stuff is elite, and his bat-missing is easily some of the best in the game. The problem for Gilbert is similar to that of Skenes; his team doesn't help him all that much, and it costs him wins. The fact that Gilbert is only 11 games over .500 for his career is tragic and understates just how great he has been since he arrived in the Majors.

3.2 Spencer Strider, SP, ATL

We all know it's coming, and to be honest, he's probably a second-round pick next season. Strider started slow in his return from his internal brace procedure but has begun racking up the strikeouts and looking like his old self again. Strider has proven what he's capable of when he's healthy, and that's an SP1. It's within reason that he reaches that level again in 2026, but for now, I'll keep him here.

3.3 Cal Raleigh, C, SEA

There has to be a catcher off the board at some point early on, and the Big Dumper has become C1. Raleigh is the most consistent source of power and production at the catcher position. Although his batting average is a significant unknown, Raleigh still overtakes King William as the top choice in 2026. He may end up a fourth-rounder, but either way, Raleigh will be the top catcher off the board.

3.4 Bryce Harper, 1B, PHI

By his ability to run and hit for a reasonable average, Harper is the 3rd first baseman off the board in 2026. The fantasy profile for Harper isn't what it used to be, but the perception of him remains high. Harper continues to have that star-power quality that draws fans and fantasy owners to him even as his career winds down. If he can overcome a recent string of injuries, Harper is a lock for 30 homers and a batting average north of .280.

3.5 Pete Alonso, 1B, NYM

Alonso could easily be the top-performing first baseman in 2025 yet still become the fourth guy off the board next season. His reputation for elite HR production precedes itself, but now the Polar Bear is hitting for a higher average than we expect from him. I highly doubt Alonso carries a .291 average for a full season, but even with batting average regression, a .250 average with 40+ homers is quite valuable.

3.6 Rafael Devers, 1B/3B/UTIL, SFG

I'm still reeling over the Devers trade, and while the newness is still present, this exercise is about looking ahead. Going from Fenway to Oracle Park is a significant drop in park factor. As someone who utilized the Green Monster on the regular at Fenway, Devers is in for a substantial adjustment. His power is still good, and he's always been an excellent bat-to-ball hitter, but I have concerns that he will ever reach those peak Red Sox numbers again.

3.7 Josh Hader, RP, HOU

The first closer off the board is the same guy who is usually in the Top 3, Astros lefty Josh Hader. 2020 excluded; Hader has logged 50 or more innings in six consecutive seasons, and 2025 will make it seven. Hader is the model of consistency as a closer, producing over 30 saves with elite ratios and striking out more than a batter per inning. The Astros are down a bit this season, and Hader has still converted all 19 of his save chances with a sub-2.00 ERA and will easily get to 30 saves once again.

3.8 Jacob deGrom, SP, TEX

Sure, we'll try this again. deGrom has looked the part thus far in 2025, and it's bold to include him on this list, given his lengthy track record of injury. He's already thrown 88 1/3 innings this season, which is just a handful shy of his combined totals from 2022-2024. If the baseball Gods can get deGrom through 2025 completely healthy, and he can enter Spring Training with no restrictions, a third-round pick may be far too conservative for deGoat.

3.9 Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, LAD

Yamamoto has already become 'the boring guy' in the fantasy world. In his second MLB season, Yamamoto is proving to be a worthy fantasy ace, although, to my chagrin, the Dodgers have him with a 6-6 record to this point. With an expansive arsenal and the pitchability that Yamamoto has shown early in his career, it's reasonable to just plug-and-play him as a Top 10 SP for the foreseeable future.

3.10 Matt Olson, 1B, ATL

Olson is an elite power source at any point in the draft, and although he could go as high as the middle of round two, his actual value is a nice fit at this spot. Thirty homers and 100+ RBIs seems like a foregone conclusion for Olson, and with Ronald Acuna Jr back hitting atop the Braves lineup, his opportunities to continue driving in those runs is enhanced.

3.11 Mookie Betts, 2B/SS/OF, LAD

This is likely to be the last year I'll have Betts as a top-three-round player. His plate skills and contact rates remain impeccable, but the quality of contact continues to slide, and he's also showing signs of losing a step. It's understandable, as Betts will turn 33 in October, and despite having arguably the best team context in the Majors and multi-position eligibility, the perception of who he is and the reality no longer align.

3.12 CJ Abrams, SS, WSH

It's been nine months since that bizarre casino-related demotion of CJ Abrams to close out the 2024 season. Whatever happened behind closed doors clearly hit home for Abrams, as he's back in the upper echelon of fantasy assets. At this point in the draft, it's extremely helpful to get a five-category contributor at a premium position, and Abrams provides just that. The Nationals offense is also on the rise, so Abrams has the potential to get a huge boost in his counting stats. That boost could push him back into round two by the time that draft season rolls around.

3.13 Michael King, SP, SDP

An injury has sidelined King since mid-May, but assuming he can return and perform well, this is a perfect spot for him. King has emerged as one of the premier strikeout pitchers in baseball, consistently accumulating quality starts and wins for the Padres. In 173 2/3 innings last season, the 29-year-old notched 201 strikeouts with a sub-3.00 ERA in his first full season as a starter.

3.14 Manny Machado, 3B, SDP

Machado has quietly been a rock in fantasy for nearly a decade and is showing no signs of slowing down. The 32-year-old has 130 or more games every year since 2015, generally mashing 30+ homers with an average north of .275 and 180-ish runs and RBI. Machado has eight steals this season after nine in 2024, so I'd anticipate a healthy handful of bags from him in 2026 as well.

3.15 Kyle Schwarber, OF, PHI

I was on the fence about the last player in the round, but I landed on Schwarber. The outfield eligibility is huge for Schwarber and adds a little extra value to his 30+ homers and, 100+ runs and RBIs. The batting average isn't usually very helpful from Schwarber, but he plays every day in a great lineup and a great ballpark. You can plug in whomever you feel is worthy, but I really like the consistency and elite production of Schwarber in three categories.

Honorable Mention:

William Contreras, C, MIL

Jarren Duran, OF, BOS

Seiya Suzuki, OF, CHC

Zach Wheeler, SP, PHI

Edwin Diaz, RP, NYM

Emmanuel Clase, RP, CLE