Long Form

Looking at TJ returners and their status in Dynasty

As you get deeper into the offseason, you run into some ruts of what you want to put out next. Or, I do. Either way, I had a question from my guy, Wyatt Long, on Substack about a bunch of pitchers in limbo due to injury, performance, etc. So, let’s dig in! The list is extensive, but everyone has viability in dynasty and is worth evaluating. In addition, I was asked to group them using the following categories: Holds, Buy-Low, Sells, and Cuts. Here we go!

HOLDS

There is a common theme among this group: all are either in or nearing the end of their recovery from Tommy John surgery.

AJ Smith-Shawver, ATL

It took Smith-Shawver a little while to get comfortable at the Major League level, but once he did, he was injured. Unfortunately, he had TJ in June and will miss all of 2026. Pre-injury, AJSS had an inconsistent track record. He threw the ball well in the Minors in 2023, was promoted to the Majors, and then got knocked around a bit in his debut. Smith-Shawver made just one MLB appearance the following season, while battling control issues and a few lingering injuries during a tumultuous 2024.

The 23-year-old opened 2025 in the Braves’ rotation, making three so-so starts before being optioned to AAA. He rejoined the big league club in late April and performed much better. In his final five starts, Smith-Shawver logged 30 2/3 innings, producing a 3.52 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The strikeouts weren’t there, but he was doing a decent job of limiting the damage, and hitters had a .205 average against him. The big change in his profile came with the addition of a splitter during the 2024 season. That pitch posted a 21.5% swinging-strike rate in the Majors in 2025 and will likely remain a staple in his arsenal for years to come. With AJSS missing all of 2026, he’s a solid hold in Dynasty. But, if you’re expecting to contend starting in 2027, he’s also a very nice buy-low if the current owner is looking to move on in exchange for a win-now piece.

Alejandro Rosario, TEX

Things aren’t as black-and-white for Rosario. The 23-year-old did not pitch at all in 2025 after experiencing an elbow injury that reportedly required Tommy John surgery. But, he still hasn’t had the surgery. His status entering 2026 is entirely unknown, but all signs point to him being out again early on this year. His first pro season was 2024, and Rosario looked the part of a future ace. After struggling mightily with command in his collegiate days at Miami, Rosario posted a 33.1% K-BB rate, thanks to a sub-4% walk rate. His stuff was incredible as he dominated hitters with a three-pitch repertoire headlined by an elite fastball/splitter mix. Given the nature of his command and bat-missing ability, Rosario was clearly headed towards becoming a Top 10 SP prospect. There’s so much uncertainty surrounding the injury and subsequent treatment that you have no choice but to hold him at this point.

Cooper Hjerpe, STL

Hjerpe has some of the nastiest stuff in the Minors, but ongoing elbow issues finally culminated with Tommy John surgery early in 2025. The 6’3” southpaw was a star at Oregon St, generating strikeout rates just under 40% and earning a first-round selection in the 2022 Draft. Since being drafted, he’s missed time with elbow inflammation three separate times, had surgery to remove loose bodies in the elbow, and then had TJ. I had some live looks at Hjerpe in the Arizona Fall League in 2023, and he’s so filthy. It’s a swinging side-arm motion that is very deceptive and helps his stuff really play up. The heater is in the low-90s, but his bread-and-butter is his sweeper and changeup. Each of them has flashed as a plus offering, and Hjerpe’s delivery makes them even more potent. Speaking of the delivery, there’s a strong chance Hjerpe will continue to battle these health issues moving forward. It’s just such an unnatural motion that it’s almost unsustainable. But, like Rosario and AJSS, his value is virtually nonexistent since he won’t pitch this season, so a hold or buy-low is the only real option.

Tekoah Roby, STL

After a very strong 2023 season, things went downhill quickly for Roby. The 24-year-old got knocked around early and often between two different levels, posting an ERA north of 6 and allowing an OPS of .905 to opposing hitters. The problem was simple; his fastball was either on or it wasn’t, and he had nothing to pair it with. 2025 was a whole different Roby as he entered camp with a slider and curveball, and he took off. Both pitches generated a swinging-strike rate of 18% or higher and a ton of called strikes. The change was reflected in the results: Roby posted a 3.10 ERA over 78 1/3 innings before injuring his elbow and undergoing Tommy John surgery. With Roby out for all of 2026, there’s nothing really actionable with him. It’s a wait-and-see, and assuming you have roster space, I’m holding everywhere I can.

Chase Hampton, NYY

The only pitcher in this group expected to pitch in 2026 is Chase Hampton. The 24-year-old had his Tommy John surgery early in 2025 and should see mound action again sometime this Summer. Hampton logged just 125 1/3 professional innings before the injury, but was effective. The bulk of his work came in 2023, when he made 20 starts totaling 106 2/3 innings, posting a mid-3s ERA and a 33.1% strikeout rate. The key for Hampton has always been, and remains, spin. The fastball and slider both have incredible spin rates and are big-time bat-missers. A cutter, curve, and changeup round out the arsenal. At his peak, Hampton was a consensus Top 100 prospect, so I’m definitely holding him if I have him in Dynasty. On the flip side, I’m also looking to acquire him in Dynasty if the price is right.

Josh Knoth, MIL

We had just one season of Josh Knoth before the then-19-year-old had Tommy John surgery last February. In his MiLB debut, he made 21 starts at Class-A, pitching to a 4.48 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. The first-rounder from 2023 had a very ineffective debut, showing a lack of command and allowing quite a bit of hard contact. The stuff itself can be good, flashing a mid-90s fastball with two unique breakers: a curve and a slider. Knoth is still just twenty with an unproven track record, so there’s no reason to move on at this point.

Brandon Barriera, TOR

The professional career of Brandon Barriera has yet to really get off the ground. Shoulder and elbow injuries derailed his rookie season in 2023, only to return and quickly undergo internal brace surgery in 2024. Barriera got back to the Minors last season and made exactly five appearances before a fractured forearm ended that journey. Barriera has 27 1/3 Minor League innings over three seasons, but he doesn’t turn 22 until just before Opening Day 2026. There’s no real value in doing anything with him at this point, but if there is another injury this season, it’s time to cut bait.

SELLS

Jared Jones, PIT

Jones was one of the hottest names in baseball in 2024. The rookie right-hander was cruising right along in his first 19 starts, generating a 3.56 ERA with a 19.1% K-BB rate before going on the IL for the first time. He would resurface in late August, making six starts down the stretch, but his ERA was just under six, and the walk rate spiked to nearly 10%. It’s primarily a simple two-pitch mix for Jones: fastball and slider, with a curve and change mixed in. He had plenty of early success with a limited arsenal, but hitters adjusted just as his command went south. That was always the story with Jones in the Minors, potentially elite stuff with poor command. It was to the point where he had a very high probability of becoming a reliever solely based on the depth of his arsenal. When Jones does return this season, his spot in the rotation is not guaranteed. In his absence, we’ve seen the emergence of Bubba Chandler, Hunter Barco, Braxton Ashcraft, and others, giving the Pirates a legitimate stable of high-end arms. His name value is still there, and with his return imminent, I’m taking the chance to move on from Jones. There is still a very high reliever risk, and even at his best, it was a mid-4s ERA with just over a strikeout per inning. The perception and the actual value don’t match.

Josiah Gray, WSH

Do you remember Josiah Gray? I had to think about it when Wyatt posted his name in a chat. The 28-year-old right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in the middle of 2024 and missed all of last season recovering. Gray should be full-go this Spring and is currently penciled in as the team’s #4 starter according to Roster Resource. If you need a recap on Gray, here it is. The right-hander has pitched in parts of four MLB seasons, including full years in 2022 and 2023. With a career walk-rate of just over 11%, control isn’t his forte. Gray isn’t much of a bat-misser, barely exceeding an 11% swinging-strike rate and never reaching more than 10Ks per nine. It’s a kitchen-sink approach for Gray, who throws seven different pitches more than 10% of the time. Three different fastball variations, including a sinker, four-seam, and cutter, average in the low-90s, with the cutter sitting in the upper-80s. Gray also uses a slider, curve, sweeper, and changeup. In his last full season, which ironically was his best, the sweeper, curve, and slider all had whiff rates of at least 34%. Still, Gray is a fly-ball pitcher who loves to give up the long ball. There’s not much upside in the profile, so I’m fine moving on unless you’re very desperate for pitching.

Robert Gasser, MIL

Gasser is officially back after fully recovering from Tommy John surgery, which he underwent in 2024. The Brewers’ left-hander logged a total of 43 2/3 innings, including 5 2/3 at the MLB level, following his return in 2025. Gasser was an excellent performer before his injury, quickly climbing the ladder and making his MLB debut in May 2024. As a Major Leaguer, the 24-year-old has a 2.67 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. The problem is that his strikeout rate is well under 20%, albeit in a small sample. His bat-missing capabilities were always decent in the Minors, so naturally, we can expect some positive regression, although to what extent? Right now, Gasser has no place in the Milwaukee rotation. And even though I’m not a believer in Quinn Priester or Chad Patrick, I don’t see much upside in his profile that would lead me to continue rostering him. He’s either a sell or a cut.

Tink Hence, STL

If you’ve read any of my work, you know where I stand on Tink Hence. Since his debut, the organization has continued to micromanage him as if he were a top prospect, even though his performance hasn’t warranted it. Hence has never thrown more than 96 innings in a season (2023) and has missed significant time with various injuries, even with them using kid gloves on him. In 2025, a shoulder ailment limited him to just 21 1/3 innings, and while he was excellent, those innings came in eight appearances. Tink Hence is not a starting pitcher, guys. The stuff is electric at times, but his command varies from start to start, and the lack of a starter’s workload gives me great pause. Now that he’s on the 40-man, his path to the Majors is ‘easier’, but there’s no way that I’d want to continue going down the road with Hence, with no long-term likelihood as a starter.

Ben Joyce, LAA

Here’s an idea. Let’s take a human being and let them throw 105 mph on a somewhat regular basis and see how that plays out. Joyce’s arm talent is crazy good, but the durability is already rearing its ugly head. The 25-year-old has a list of injuries that resembles a Walgreens receipt, including his most recent, a second shoulder surgery in 2025. That’s now three years as a pro and two major surgeries on his shoulder. The elbow has to be next, right? Joyce holds four career saves in 49 MLB innings, striking out 44 hitters but with 24 walks. So, in addition to the injury concerns, he’s not throwing strikes either. That’s a recipe for disaster and an early exit from pro baseball. Sell, if you can, but he’s probably a cut.

BUY-LOW

Cody Bradford, TEX

Bradford is an interesting buy-low, especially this offseason. The 27-year-old underwent internal brace surgery early in 2025 and, according to reports, should be a full participant in Spring Training. His anticipated return is still in June or later, but he should contribute this season.

Bradford has a history of getting a fair amount of strikeouts while also showing excellent command and control. He’s made a total of 34 appearances (21 starts) in the Majors, posting an ERA of 4.28 and a 1.10 WHIP. His walk rate is below 5% with the Rangers, and although his K-rate is only around 22%, Bradford has some traits that could raise that in the future. First, he’s got elite extension, averaging over 7 feet with his 6’4” frame. His four-pitch mix consists of a fastball, slider, curve, and changeup with below-average velocity, but Bradford’s outstanding command and the extra boost from his extension get him a lot of called strikes. Also, his ability to keep hitters off-balance produces a lot of soft contact, although most of it comes via the fly ball. With all that in mind, when you consider his pitcher-friendly home ballpark, adding additional protection, Bradford has a relatively high floor for fantasy and makes a great SP6/SP7 in all formats.

DJ Herz, WSH

2024 was a mixed bag for Herz, as the 6’2” left-hander flashed brilliance but had his share of blowups in his first MLB season. Among his 19 starts were two games with zero or one run allowed, along with no walks and double-digit strikeouts. Herz also had five games with at least 4 ER allowed and six games with at least three walks. All told, he finished with a 4.16 ERA in 88 2/3 innings, missing bats at a 13% clip but also yielding 11 homers and a 1.26 WHIP. Most of his strikeout success came from his low-90s fastball, which had a 15% SwStr and 32.1% CSW, both of which ranked in the 93rd percentile or better among qualified starters. There’s enough strikeout upside with Herz to warrant taking a shot on him. Adding him to your squad will require precision with your roster construction, as the volatility with his WHIP and ERA could be problematic.

Brandon Birdsell, CHC

Brandon Birdsell was on a rocketship in the Cubs system as 2025 opened. The Cubs’ 2024 MiLB Pitcher of the Year suffered a lat strain early last season and then ended up needing season-ending elbow surgery late in August. The exact nature of the surgery is unknown, but Dr. Keith Meister performed it, so a UCL reconstruction is highly likely. Birdsell will inevitably miss most, if not all, of 2026. Above-average command has been a staple of Birdsell’s profile since day one, and although he’s not a significant source of strikeouts, there is some upside there. Given that he’ll miss this season, I’m holding Birdsell.

Ricky Tiedemann, TOR

I don’t know what to do with Tiedemann. Part of me wants to sell on name value alone, but the potential impact is so significant that it doesn’t make sense to take pennies on the dollar. Once one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, Tiedemann has long battled shoulder injuries in his career, leaving many expecting him to shift to the bullpen in the future. The 24-year-old ended up having Tommy John surgery in 2024, but should be full-go this Spring. His arsenal is elite. The four-seam fastball is upper-90s with a wipeout slider and a nasty changeup, giving him three pitches that are plus-or-better. But the injury risk is so great, and we have no idea what to expect from him when he returns. For now, I’m buying low, but I’d be cautious not to overpay.

CUT

Brandon Williamson, CIN

Now 27, Reds’ left-hander Brandon Williamson is now 15 months removed from his Tommy John surgery, which he underwent in September 2024. The former second-round pick from 2019 has logged a total of 286 2/3 MiLB innings with another 131 1/3 in the Majors. Overall, the results have been OK. His career ERA in the Minors is a tad under 4.00 with a 1.38 WHIP. In his lone full MLB season in 2023, Williamson had a 4.46 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and a 12% K-BB rate. Generally speaking, Williamson has below-average command, which has led to a double-digit walk rate. A 27.5% MiLB strikeout rate is encouraging; however, it has not translated to the Majors. The overall skills are not great, and Williamson is nothing more than a depth piece in real life, with very little fantasy viability. I’m comfortable moving on from him, although if you can nab a FYPD pick or a low-level Minor Leaguer with some upside, I’d take that chance.

Jake Bloss, TOR

Now with Toronto, 24-year-old Jake Bloss is likely to miss most of 2026 following his own Tommy John surgery last May. Bloss has already reached the Majors, making three starts for Houston in 2024. The biggest thing working against Bloss and his potential return to the Majors is his command of the strike zone. Bloss has a career-walk rate of 10.8% and has not been a source of strikeouts since his days in the low Minors. There were also concerns over inconsistent velocity at various points in his career, so his post-TJ velo will be highly scrutinized. I’ve dropped Bloss in a few leagues this offseason. I don’t see a good reason to hold at this time.