2024 Bold Fantasy Predictions, Division & Award Winners
My prognostication for the 2024 MLB Season
Well, everyone does it, so here I go! Baseball season is officially here, and most importantly, it's time for fantasy baseball to begin. After hours of podcasts, articles (hopefully mine), slow clocks, snipes, and ignoring trade requests, it's time for your fantasy teams to show what all the hard work was for! Just remember, someone has to finish last! Luckily for most of you, I'm in your leagues, so some of you will finish second to last. On with the show!
BOLD PREDICTIONS
After a tumultuous draft season, which saw his minimum pick at 11 and maximum pick at 85, Tyler Glasnow finishes outside the Top 20 for SP. The harsh reality is that Glasnow is rarely healthy, and the Dodgers rarely get a starter through the season without injury, a bad combination. Glasnow will be as good as he usually is when he's on the mound, but I don't envision a scenario where Glasnow achieves 100 innings pitched.
Glasnow isn't the only big-name starting pitcher that will bust this season, but I hope my boss, Nick Pollack, doesn't see this. Unfortunately, the unicorn Cole Ragans will finish outside the Top 30 SP. Ragans had an unexpected and impressive run to finish his 2023 season, including posting a near-30% strikeout rate following his trade to the Royals. Ragans also had a 10.5% walk rate, an indicator that control is very much an issue. My reasoning behind this prediction is that I think Ragans experiences a Cease-like regression and has an ERA pushing 5.00.
Tigers rookie Parker Meadows (ADP: 275, OF62) finishes with a 20-20 season but struggles to hit .250. Meadows closed out 2023 with three homers and eight steals in a small sample, drawing the eye of many across baseball. He entered Spring Training with the inside track to be on the Opening Day roster and left camp as the everyday centerfielder by hitting .358 with four homers and a 1.072 OPS. If you didn't get any shares of Meadows during the draft season, you will regret it.
Bryce Miller will finish the highest of the Mariners' starters this season. Miller had a solid rookie campaign, finishing with a 4.32 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, aided by a 17.3% K-BB rate. Miller struggled against LHH last season, so he's implemented a new splitter to combat his issues. Miller already had an elite four-seam fastball that played up in the zone, and adding a splitter will allow him to alter the eye level of hitters. Miller's ability to miss bats with multiple pitches while maintaining a sub-6% walk rate will push him into ace-level production.
Two Red Sox hitters drafted outside the top 150 in ADP will finish in the Top 10 at their position: Jarren Duran and Trevor Story. This is my homer pick because let's face it, the Red Sox aren't winning their division or the Wild Card. Following his promotion in late April, Duran was an unexpected star for the Red Sox. He added a layer of speed, aggression, and improved power to his profile that we hadn't seen since his early prospect days. Duran will be the leadoff hitter for the Red Sox, hitting ahead of Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, and Masa Yoshida. That will provide ample opportunity for runs scored and stolen bases. I'm penciling Duran in for a .270 average, 15 HRs, 40SB, and 180 combined runs and RBI. Trevor Story has lost two consecutive seasons to injuries, and Story looks like his old self this Spring. His swing looks strong, he has vindication in his approach, and he looks healthy. Story won't be a good source of batting average, but I think he's headed for a 25-25 season in the heart of the Red Sox order.
Jorge Polanco finishes as a Top 5 second baseman. It wasn't long ago that Jorge Polanco was a fantasy darling. In 2021, the second baseman finished with a .269 average, 33 home runs, and 195 combined runs and RBI. Polanco, who was traded to Seattle this offseason, has looked comfortable and healthy in his new home and will bounce back with a 25-homer season. The Mariners haven't had a quality second baseman since 2018, and Polanco fits their roster perfectly. I'm really in on Polanco this season, and I think he will return excellent value at an ADP of 248.
Despite his omission from the Opening Day roster, Guardians' outfielder Chase DeLauter leads the team in Home Runs. It's no secret that I'm a Chase DeLauter fanboy, so this prediction shouldn't surprise you. Outside of Jose Ramirez and the Naylor brothers, the Guardians' roster is offensively inept and has been for a long time. The current outfield of Ramon Laureano, Tyler Freeman, and Steven Kwan is uninspiring, and 2/3 of them shouldn't be on MLB rosters. DeLauter mashed this Spring, finishing with a .520 average, four home runs, and a 1.040 OPS. DeLauter had just 28 at-bats in Double-A last season, so I understand the hesitation, but for a team that's been offensively putrid for nearly a decade, DeLauter will be a sight for sore eyes.
WILD CARDS, DIVISION WINNERS, and WORLD SERIES PREDICTIONS
AL East: Orioles
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Mariners
Wild Cards: Astros, Rangers, Blue Jays
AL Champion: Orioles
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
Wild Cards: Phillies, Giants, Diamondbacks
NL Champion: Braves
World Series Champions: Atlanta Braves
AWARD WINNERS
AL Manager of the Year: Rocco Baldelli, Twins
NL Manager of the Year: Craig Counsell, Cubs
AL Rookie of the Year: Jackson Holliday, Orioles
NL Rookie of the Year: Paul Skenes, Pirates
I love Wyatt Langford, and I understand the love here. Holliday will be the Rookie of the Year because his impact will be greater for his team. The Orioles are screwing around early in the season with Ramon Urias, opting to let Holliday start in Triple-A. That's a bad decision, and they know it. Holliday makes them a complete team, and the Orioles will take off once he arrives.
Again I'm going away from the obvious choice, Jackson Chourio. Instead, I'll take Paul Skenes. I've been vocal about needing to see more of Skenes professionally before buying the hype. I'm still needing more, but I feel that his impact will be felt immediately upon his promotion and 120 innings of Skenes at the MLB level will get him the ROY.
AL Cy Young: Corbin Burnes, Orioles
NL Cy Young: Freddie Peralta, Brewers
Ironically, two pitchers in the same rotation to open 2023 will win Cy Young awards in opposite leagues in 2024. Corbin Burnes is entering free agency following 2024 and has the motivation and situation to dominate. Burnes got a park upgrade going to Wall-timore, and an added benefit is that Gerrit Cole starts the season on the IL. Peralta is now the ace in Milwaukee and is coming off a dominant 2023 season. He improved his walk and strikeout rates but will need to cut down his home run totals. Either way, Peralta will sneak in and steal the Cy Young away from Braves' ace Spencer Strider.
AL MVP: Gunnar Henderson
NL MVP: Mookie Betts
The Orioles are in their prime window of opportunity and their best player, Gunnar Henderson, will win the MVP. Henderson had a brutal start to 2023 and rebounded to post a 28-homer season with 100 runs scored and 10 steals. He is projected to hit third in the lineup behind Adley Rutschman and Gunnar will announce his stardom with a 35-25 season en route to his first career MVP.
Betts has been one of the best players in the game for a long time. His value exceeds the value of Alex Verdugo, Connor Wong, and Jeter Downs (yes I'm still bitter). His multi-position eligibility, consistency on both sides of the ball, and hitting atop of the Dodgers' lineup ahead of Ohtani, Freeman, and Smith will make Betts the first player to score 150 runs in a season since Jeff Bagwell in 2000. My gut prediction on Betts is .285/.410/.562 with 36 HRs, 151 runs, 112 RBIs, and 15 steals. That's a MASSIVE season worthy of the NL MVP.